UFC Sao Paulo Odds, Picks, Projections Our Best Bets for Return to Brazil (Saturday, November 4)
Check out our UFC Sao Paulo best bets and the latest odds and projections for the Saturday event, which streams on ESPN+ from Ibirapuera Arena in Brazil.
UFC Sao Paulo features 11 bouts in all. The preliminary card kicks off at 6 p.m. ET (3 p.m. PT), and the main card starts at 9 p.m. ET. The entire fight card is available on ESPN+.
So where should be looking to place your UFC Sao Paulo bets? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and five picks on Saturday’s Brazilian fight card that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from BetMGM.
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Moneyline ProjectionsProp ProjectionsBilly Ward: Kaue Fernandes vs. Marc DiakieseStaff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:55 p.m. ET
The UFC Sao Paulo opener features a rare Brazilian underdog with UFC debutant Kaue Fernandes taking on the veteran Marc Diakese.
Diakese is 7-7 in the UFC, but he's dropped four of his last six fights, which included two stoppage losses. At his best, he’s a suffocating wrestler with 19 takedowns in his two wins during that timeframe. In his four losses, he has just two total takedowns.
Getting those takedowns is clearly a good thing, but the inability to hold down his opponents isn’t. The MMA scoring criteria no longer rewards takedowns without further action from the top, which could work against Diakese should this one hit the judges.
UFC Props: 5 Juicy Long-Shot Picks for Sao PauloRead nowDiakese's also been submitted three times in his seven UFC losses. That’s a bad indicator against Fernandes, a BJJ black belt with multiple submission wins to his name. Diakese might just wrestle his way into trouble in this one.
Or he chooses to keep the fight standing. Diakese has flashed solid standup in the past, but he isn’t a reliably strong striker. Fernandes punched his ticket to the UFC with consecutive kick knockouts, and he is a powerful, fast striker.
It’s hard to say how Fernandes' striking will hold up against UFC-level competition, but I’m willing to find out at +160 odds. He could also see some friendly judging with the Brazilian crowd reacting favorably to his big moments, raising his odds of getting his hand raised in a close fight.
This line has seen fairly significant movement in both directions, but I’d take this side at +150 or better.
The Pick: Kaue Fernandes (+160 at DraftKings)
Dann Stupp: Angela Hill vs. Denise GomesSenior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:55 p.m. ET
Getting Angela Hill at plus money in what should be a competitive standup fight? I'll take that bet every day.
In her UFC Sao Paulo prelim bout with fellow strawweight Denise Gomes, Hill is – at worst – facing a 50-50 proposition here, in my opinion.
Sure, Gomes carries the power advantage. But I like Hill's durability, cardio, output and forward pressure as a way to win rounds and swing this fight in her favor.
As my colleague Billy Ward mentioned in this week's UFC Sao Paulo Luck Ratings, when there's an age gap like the one between 38-year-old Hill and 23-year-old Gomez, the older fighters have generally fared pretty miserably.
Still, I think Hill could be the exception to this trend. Her career is already a bit of a rarity and novelty: She was nearly 30 years old before she had her first pro MMA fight. And though her 15-13 record may look a little ho-hum, she's fought basically everyone in the division – on the sport's biggest stage – and she hasn't been finished in 11 fights.
If Hill can avoid a knockout shot and ground or pound, she should win rounds and win this fight.
How often does Hill do just that? I'd put her chances at exactly 50%.
That makes any plus-money bet on Hill – including the +125 odds (implied win probability of 44.4%) at BetMGM, as of this writing – a value proposition.
Expect a few frightful moments for "Overkill" on Saturday night, but I think her veteran savvy carries her to yet another signature win.
(Also, my wife is a huge Angela Hill fan, and she still won't shut up about the times I bet against Hill and lost. I can't live down another one. Help me here, Angela.)
The Pick: Angela Hill (+125 at BetMGM)
Sean Zerillo: Rodolfo Vieira vs. Armen PetrosyanSenior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:55 p.m. ET
I incorporate a substantial amount of public pick data to make my projections for UFC fights, and Armen Petrosyan is the apparent public side of the week, generating a selection rate higher than 65% across multiple datasets (and thousands of picks, but not necessarily bets) despite a betting line at a pick'em price.
After balancing that dataset relative to the betting odds, I project Rodolfo Vieira as the favorite and view the Brazilian as the clear value side of this UFC Sao Paulo main card opener. Bet his moneyline to -120 (projected -128), and play his submission prop to +165 (projected +154)
This fight is a reasonably binary striker vs. grappler matchup in which Vieira – an ADCC champion and one of the most decorated submission jiu-jitsu practitioners in combat sports – should get to dominant positions against Petrosyan, a high-volume kickboxer.
Petrosyan has shown poor takedown defense and a tendency to give up his back in the UFC octagon, and Vieira – who is an extra handful when he's fresh and both fighters are dry – should have opportunities to finish the fight early.
Even if he can't finish the fight, Vieira could win with two rounds of dominant control time, as Caio Borralho did in his decision over Petrosyan (he landed four of five takedowns, 10:09 control time).
Petrosyan's path to victory, aside from a knockout, is to survive the early grappling onslaught, repeatedly scramble back to his feet, and out-strike a tiring Vieira in the second half of the fight.
Vieira is the clear side from a pre-fight perspective, but you could hedge out a bit on Petrosyan – who has the cardio advantage – if he's still there after five minutes.
The Picks: Rodolfo Vieira (-105 at BetMGM) | Vieira by Submission (+200 at FanDuel)
Bet Vieira by Sub Instantly at FanDuel with QuickSlip!Tony Sartori: Rodrigo Nascimento vs. Don'Tale MayesStaff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:55 p.m. ET
On Saturday's main card, there is a heavyweight bout between the No. 15-ranked contender Rodrigo Nascimento and Don'Tale Mayes.
These two squared off in May of 2020, with Nascimento securing a rear naked choke to claim a second round victory over Mayes. This is the main reason that Nascimento is nearing two dollars on the moneyline, although I think Mayes has shown some improvements since then.
Following that loss, Mayes is 3-1 with one no contest. That one loss came against Augusto Sakai, who just out wrestled Mayes en route to an effortless unanimous decision victory.
While Nascimento is capable of wrestling, he is more of a grappler and will look for submissions rather than do what Sakai did and just lay on top of Mayes for three straight rounds. Mayes is always dangerous on the feet, while he demonstrated his improved wrestling with his win over Josh Parisian.
Another reason why I am not as optimistic about Nascimento faring as well in this rematch is that he was 8-0 professionally the first time he took on Mayes. There's a certain level of confidence in this sport that can't be replicated when you are undefeated, which is no longer the case for the No. 15-ranked contender.
Following his win over Mayes, Nascimento was knocked out by Chris Daukaus within a minute of the first round, and he has not been nearly as dominant since that loss with two split decision wins over Tanner Boser and Ilir Latifi.
I think we get a more competitive performance out of Mayes, who always carries knockout power but has also improved on the mat since the last time these two squared off. However, despite the improved ground game, I think Mayes will stay at distance, utilize his size advantage to pick his shots, and eventually find a finishing blow when Nascimento starts to get desperate for a takedown.
The Pick: Don'Tale Mayes (+170 at DraftKings)
