Liverpool vs Crystal Palace Odds, Predictions, Picks Premier League Match Preview
Sunday, Apr. 149 a.m. ETUSA Network
Liverpool Odds-450Crystal Palace Odds+1100Draw+500Over / Under3.5 +100o / -125uOdds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.
Liverpool will try to get back on track in the Premier League title race after a rough week when it hosts a Crystal Palace side Sunday that could still be dragged back into a relegation fight.
First, Liverpool was held to a 2-2 draw at Manchester United last weekend that saw it lose hold of the league lead to Arsenal. Then came arguably the Reds' worst result of the season, a 3-0 home defeat in Leg 1 of the UEFA Europa League quarterfinals against Italy's Atalanta.
Palace's form has been relatively unchanged since the appointment of new manager Oliver Glasner, who has only one win in his first seven league matches in charge. They entered the weekend only five points clear of the relegation zone, albeit with a match in hand on three of the teams beneath them.
Liverpool earned a 2-1 win in the sides' previous league meeting at Selhurst Park, rallying from a goal down in a game transformed by Palace's Jordan Ayew receiving his second yellow card in the 75th minute.
Let's take a look at the best bet for the matchup in our Liverpool vs. Crystal Palace preview.
LiverpoolThe most stunning thing about Liverpool's midweek cup defeat may not have been the final score, but the quality of chances permitted to its Italian opponents.
Atalanta had five big chances in total — those defined as carrying an expected goals value of 0.3 or higher — and might have increased its aggregate lead in the two-leg series by even more had it been better at converting them.
Liverpool also created plenty of opportunities. But two of its three big chances came once Atatlanta was already three goals ahead.
What may be most concerning for manager Jürgen Klopp is just how much his side was opened up on a night it had more than two-thirds of the possession. It's a dynamic likely to be repeated Sunday against a Palace side that has held less than 30% possession in seven league games this season, and less than 40% in 13.
On the other hand, it must be noted the result came on a night Klopp took a risk by rotating some of his regulars — with Mo Salah and Luis Díaz among those who began the game on the bench. Those two would appear almost certain to return to the starting XI on Sunday as Klopp, understandably, appears to be prioritizing the league.
Crystal PalaceWhen handicapping a team that has undergone a recent managerial swap, the obvious place to start is to discern what has changed since the takeover. In Palace's case, that's pretty hard to figure out.
The Eagles may have swapped formations since Glasner's arrival, playing a 3-4-3 instead of a back-four shape they generally stuck to under previous boss Roy Hodgson. But the issues have been more or less the same, with Palace struggling to be goal-dangerous enough to earn wins in games in which it's favored, or positive results in games it is the underdog.
Glasner's lone victory came against a Burnley squad reduced to 10 men before halftime, and it still took 68 minutes before U.S. Men's National Team regular Chris Richard finally found the first breakthrough in what finished a 3-0 victory.
But there may be hope on the horizon for more dangerous attacking days in the form of Michael Olise and Odsonne Édouard, who both came on for the final 17 minutes of last weekend's 4-2 home defeat to Manchester City.
It was the longest outing in at least a month for either attacker after both have battled injuries, and the latter scored his team lead-tying seventh league goal as a consolation for the hosts. And there seems to be a chance Olise and Eberechi Eze both start on their respective wings Sunday. Palace has scored in all four previous games when that has occurred this season, winning and scoring three goals in two of them.
Prediction
Liverpool has been excellent all season at home, and you'd probably expect them to win this match nine out of 11 times as the implied probability of their moneyline odds would suggest.
But the idea of Palace having all three of their top-choice attackers on the field for only the fifth time this season is enough reason to hold off on backing the home side here, particularly when there are such friendly odds on the prospect of both teams finding the net.
The wager here is on both teams to score and the total going above 2.5 goals on a same-game parlay at +110 odds and an implied 47.6% probability. It's a bet that has cashed in six of Liverpool's nine matches against teams in the bottom half of the table, and in all four matches that Eze and Olise have started together.
There's almost certainly value on that at even money or lower, though at books where the number is less friendly, you might just play the yes wager without the parlay because there is less price difference between them.
Pick: Over 2.5 Goals and Yes – both teams to score, same-game parlay (+110 via BetMGM)