Everton vs Aston Villa Prediction, Odds Premier League Match Preview

Everton vs Aston Villa OddsSunday, Jan. 149 a.m. ETUSA NetworkEverton Odds+180Aston Villa Odds+145Draw+250Over / Under2.5-134 / +110Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Here's everything you need to know about Everton vs. Aston Villa on Sunday, Jan. 14 — our expert prediction and odds for today.

The shortened Premier League slate continues on Sunday as Everton host Aston Villa in a matchup lined close to a pick'em. Aston Villa finished the first half of the Premier League season in the top four, beating expectations more than almost every other team in England relative to market. The Villans are still just -138 at bet365 to finish in the top four by year's end, indicating there remains some real market skepticism about their chances of keeping up the pace and holding off the chasing pack.

Everton have lost three consecutive matches to Spurs, Manchester City and Wolves, and the market has bumped Everton down a bit in its market rating as a result. These two sides have met twice already — Villa thrashed them early in the league and Everton won an EFL Cup match at Goodison Park. 

The market has moved slightly toward Villa in the week leading up to this match, but Everton received some positive suspension news after they won the appeal to overturn Dominic Calvert-Lewin's suspension after his red card in the FA Cup match last weekend.

Here is my Everton vs Aston Villa prediction.

Everton

The biggest edge for Everton in this match is on set pieces offensively. The Toffees rank third in xG per set piece in attack, and Villa have the league's worst defense at defending dead ball situations. Villa's talent level is skewed and designed toward possession and having the ball, and they're not built with a ton of big defenders who excel in the air.

This is especially true with the absence of Tyrone Mings, who is key to slowing down the long balls up to Calvert-Lewin. The Toffees have the highest percentage of passes in the PL that are long balls, and they don't waste time recycling the ball in their own half. This approach has helped Everton's defensive numbers, as the Toffees have conceded the fewest big scoring chances in the PL and the fourth-fewest non-penalty xG per 90 minutes.

Aston Villa had one of their most dominant wins of the entire season at home against Everton in match week 2, but the Toffees are the second-most improved team in my numbers from match week 1 to now (only Bournemouth are more improved). The Toffees rank seventh in expected goal differential at home with a +5.5 expected goal differential, despite an actual -1 goal differential.

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Aston Villa try to condense the space in midfield and make it difficult for teams to play through them. It forces teams to try to beat their extremely high line and overcome the offside trap. No team in the Premier League has forced teams offside more than Unai Emery’s side. Facing an Everton side that is one of the most direct, long ball teams in the Premier League, the Toffees won’t even try to play through the tight midfield spaces and instead can launch dangerous attacks over the top.

Aston Villa’s defense away from home has been quite alarming relative to the rest of their overall profile. The Villans are conceding 1.6 xGA per match on their travels, which ranks 11th in the league.

The Toffees struggle to defend away from home were on full display in the second half against Manchester United on Boxing Day. Despite leading 2-0 at half, the Villans consistently were on the verge of getting broken open for high quality chances. The Villans have conceded the third-fewest shots in the Premier League this year, but they rank 15th in big scoring chances allowed and 14th in final third to box entry conversion rate.

Once teams get into the final third, they're very easily able to enter the penalty area and get high quality shots against the Villa goal.

Everton vs Aston Villa

Prediction

If you strip away penalty and red card luck and only control for open play, 11-on-11 metrics, Everton actually have better underlying numbers than Villa. Everton are +0.37 npxG per 90, while Villa sit marginally worse at +0.21 npxG per 90.  

I have this lined as a true toss-up and thus would bet anything plus money on Everton draw no bet. 

Pick: Everton – Draw No Bet (+100 or better)