Alaves vs Cadiz Odds, Prediction La Liga Match Preview
Friday, Jan. 193 p.m. ETESPN+
Alavés Odds-125Cadiz Odds+400Draw+240Over / Under2.5 +140 / -188Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.
La Liga action returns this weekend with a full slate of matches, starting with Friday’s crucial game at the bottom of the table between Alavés and Cádiz.
The hosts have climbed up to 13th in the league table on 20 points, but they were knocked out of the Copa del Rey in the midweek loss to Athletic Club.
Meanwhile, the visitors are winless in their last 18 in all competitions to sit in the relegation zone in 18th.
This is a huge opportunity for both squads to pick up important points, which should give us a great match to start the weekend in Spain.
Let's get into my Alavés vs Cadiz prediction.
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AlavésAlavés are not a squad that you back due to a free-flowing attack. However, the Basque country club makes up for this with strong defensive metrics.
Luis García’s team ranks seventh in La Liga in both expected goals allowed per match and big chances surrendered per game, according to fbref.com.
On the offensive end of the field, the key performers have been the forward duo of Samuel Omorodion and Kike García.
The duo has combined for just under half of the team’s league goals this season, and they need another big performance here at home.
If the club wants to stay in the Spanish top flight, Sergio’s team needs to start creating more chances in front of goal.
On the season, Cádiz rank in the bottom two of La Liga in multiple offensive categories, including expected goals per 90 minutes (0.86), big chances created (27) and goals scored (15).
To make matters worse, Sergio will be without three players who are out with suspension, which includes two starting defenders, Rubén Alcaraz and Javi Hernández.
Sergio is under a lot of pressure to keep his job, especially if results don’t start turning around soon.
Alavés vs CadizPrediction
When I dove into this game, the home and road splits for both clubs were the determining factor in this play. However, I decided to get creative with my favorite play.
So, my best bet is a same game parlay, pairing together an Alavés victory with the total falling under five goals at -105.
If you start first with the club from Basque country, Alavés have posted a +5.1 xGDiff at home this season, which ranks seventh in La Liga.
I also like the fact that Garcia’s team has won three of four at home against sides in the bottom half of the league table.
Meanwhile, Cádiz have the worst xGDiff on the road in the Spanish top flight at -14.1. The next-closest team is Granada at -9.4.
This is also the same side that has only six goals away from home and a -5.1 xGDiff at the bottom 10 sides.
As for the total, no Cádiz road match has finished with more than five goals, while only one of nine home games for Alavés has topped this total.
I don’t think oddsmakers are taking into account how much better Alavés has been at the Mendizorrotza Stadium. So, I’ll back the home team to get a result here.
Pick: SGP – Alavés ML & Under 5 (-105)